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Current Market Growth

 
2018/12/27 11:50:01 AM
Current Market Growth

Canadian Real Estate Price Gains Continue To Taper, Annual Growth Falls Below 2%

 

After years of overheated growth, Canadian real estate price gains are tapering. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) numbers show prices for a benchmark (a.k.a. typical) home across Canada slowed in growth in November. Prices are beginning to stall after years of explosive growth across most of the country.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Rise Less Than 2%

Canadian real estate prices are continuing to see annual price growth taper. The benchmark price of a typical home across Canada reached $618,800 in November, down 0.51% from the month before. Prices are up 1.98% when compared to the same month last year, and are up 43.06% over the past 5 years. Growth has now fallen behind inflation, and is on trend for further tapering.

Canadian Real Estate Benchmark Change

The 12 month price in change of a typical home across Canada.

DateChange
Jan 2006 9.6
Feb 2006 10.41
Mar 2006 11.38
Apr 2006 12.65
May 2006 13.98
Jun 2006 15.02
Jul 2006 15.7
Aug 2006 16.16
Sep 2006 16.42
Oct 2006 16.03
Nov 2006 15.97
Dec 2006 15.53
Jan 2007 15.33
Feb 2007 15.35
Mar 2007 15.07
Apr 2007 14.59
May 2007 14.13
Jun 2007 13.64
Jul 2007 12.91
Aug 2007 12.12
Sep 2007 11.2
Oct 2007 10.84
Nov 2007 10.25
Dec 2007 9.92
Jan 2008 9.18
Feb 2008 8.33
Mar 2008 7.43
Apr 2008 6.1
May 2008 4.52
Jun 2008 2.93
Jul 2008 1.68
Aug 2008 0.73
Sep 2008 -0.22
Oct 2008 -1.38
Nov 2008 -2.54
Dec 2008 -3.93
Jan 2009 -5.29
Feb 2009 -6.61
Mar 2009 -7.48
Apr 2009 -7.24
May 2009 -6.52
Jun 2009 -5.33
Jul 2009 -3.72
Aug 2009 -2.16
Sep 2009 -0.36
Oct 2009 1.62
Nov 2009 3.87
Dec 2009 6.06
Jan 2010 8.11
Feb 2010 10.15
Mar 2010 11.56
Apr 2010 11.56
May 2010 10.77
Jun 2010 9.47
Jul 2010 7.89
Aug 2010 6.19
Sep 2010 4.81
Oct 2010 3.76
Nov 2010 3.01
Dec 2010 2.43
Jan 2011 2.05
Feb 2011 1.75
Mar 2011 1.8
Apr 2011 2.13
May 2011 2.6
Jun 2011 3.16
Jul 2011 4
Aug 2011 4.72
Sep 2011 4.94
Oct 2011 5.16
Nov 2011 4.94
Dec 2011 4.88
Jan 2012 4.65
Feb 2012 4.53
Mar 2012 4.55
Apr 2012 4.64
May 2012 4.61
Jun 2012 4.39
Jul 2012 3.91
Aug 2012 3.58
Sep 2012 3.45
Oct 2012 3.31
Nov 2012 3.12
Dec 2012 2.99
Jan 2013 2.72
Feb 2013 2.5
Mar 2013 2.34
Apr 2013 2.25
May 2013 2.43
Jun 2013 2.61
Jul 2013 2.87
Aug 2013 3.13
Sep 2013 3.52
Oct 2013 3.85
Nov 2013 4.38
Dec 2013 4.58
Jan 2014 5.03
Feb 2014 5.51
Mar 2014 5.52
Apr 2014 5.46
May 2014 5.48
Jun 2014 5.71
Jul 2014 5.71
Aug 2014 5.64
Sep 2014 5.63
Oct 2014 5.74
Nov 2014 5.67
Dec 2014 5.86
Jan 2015 5.59
Feb 2015 5.22
Mar 2015 5.29
Apr 2015 5.36
May 2015 5.38
Jun 2015 5.52
Jul 2015 5.87
Aug 2015 6.16
Sep 2015 6.44
Oct 2015 6.48
Nov 2015 6.83
Dec 2015 6.94
Jan 2016 7.39
Feb 2016 8.14
Mar 2016 8.9
Apr 2016 10.06
May 2016 12.05
Jun 2016 13.14
Jul 2016 13.69
Aug 2016 14.15
Sep 2016 14.31
Oct 2016 14.59
Nov 2016 14.47
Dec 2016 14.45
Jan 2017 15.33
Feb 2017 16.01
Mar 2017 18.24
Apr 2017 19.31
May 2017 17.36
Jun 2017 15.26
Jul 2017 12.29
Aug 2017 10.56
Sep 2017 9.92
Oct 2017 9.1
Nov 2017 8.54
Dec 2017 8.43
Jan 2018 7.23
Feb 2018 6.26
Mar 2018 3.59
Apr 2018 1.21
May 2018 0.85
Jun 2018 0.85
Jul 2018 2.21
Aug 2018 2.54
Sep 2018 2.28
Oct 2018 2.33
Nov 2018 1.98
 

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Canadian real estate price gains are tapering, and on trend to hit negative growth. November’s annual pace of growth at 1.98%, is huge contrast to the 8.54% we saw the same month last year. Like last month, the minor increase has more to do with the rapid deceleration of price gains. Prices aren’t falling as quickly into winter as they were last year.

Vancouver Real Estate Is Canada’s Most Expensive Market

Vancouver, Oakville, and Fraser Valley are the most expensive markets in Canada. The price of a typical Vancouver home reached $1,042,100 in November, down 1.35% from last year. Oakville, an affluent suburb of Toronto, reached $955,400, up 3.4% from last year. Fraser Valley hit $841,600, up 4.72% from last year. Toronto followed with a benchmark of $686,400, an increase of 2.73% from last year.

Canadian Real Estate Benchmark Price

The price of a typical home in Canada’s largest real estate markets.

$0$200,000$400,000$600,000$800,000$1,000,000$1,200,000VancouverOakvilleFraser ValleyTorontoVictoriaCanadaHamiltonGuelphVancouver IslandBarrieCalgaryOttawaNiagaraMontrealEdmontonSaskatoonReginaMoncton
CityBenchmark
Vancouver 1,042,100
Oakville 955,400
Fraser Valley 841,600
Toronto 763,600
Victoria 686,400
Canada 618,800
Hamilton 581,900
Guelph 530,000
Vancouver Island 486,700
Barrie 466,400
Calgary 418,300
Ottawa 393,600
Niagara 393,500
Montreal 348,200
Edmonton 321,800
Saskatoon 293,500
Regina 272,100
Moncton 182,300
 

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The cheapest markets were Moncton, Regina, and Saskatoon. The price of a typical home in Moncton reached $182,300 in November, up 17.25% from last year. Regina was the second most affordable with a price of $272,100, down 10% from last year. Saskatoon came in third at $293,500, down 5.34% from last year. Two of those markets, while more affordable than the rest of Canada, are still seeing prices drop.

Vancouver Island, Guelph, And Niagara Make Biggest Gains

The biggest annual gains were made in Vancouver Island, Guelph, and Niagara. Vancouver Island’s benchmark price reached $486,700 in November, up 12.65% from last year. In second was Guelph’s benchmark with $530,000, up 9.26% from last year. Niagara came in third with $393,500, up 7.19% from last year. Yes, none of Canada’s major cities made the list this month.

Canadian Real Estate Price Change – 1 Year

The 1 year percent change in the price of a typical home, in Canada’s largest markets.

-5051015Vancouver IslandGuelphNiagaraVictoriaOttawaHamiltonMontrealFraser ValleyMonctonOakvilleTorontoCanadaSaskatoonVancouverEdmontonBarrieCalgaryReginaPercent
City12 Months
Vancouver Island 12.65
Guelph 9.26
Niagara 7.19
Victoria 7.17
Ottawa 6.58
Hamilton 6.29
Montreal 6.21
Fraser Valley 4.72
Moncton 4.17
Oakville 3.4
Toronto 2.73
Canada 1.98
Saskatoon -0.27
Vancouver -1.35
Edmonton -1.86
Barrie -2.08
Calgary -2.88
Regina -3.99
 

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The biggest losers in Canada are Regina, Calgary, and Barrie. Regina’s benchmark reached $272,100 in November, down 3.99% from last year. Calgary’s benchmark hit $418,300, down 2.88% from last year. Barrie fell to $466,400, down 2.0% from last year. Barrie is the only market in this list that hasn’t fallen behind the national average over the past 5 years.

Toronto Real Estate Suburbs Rise The Most Over The Past 5 Years

Canadian real estate prices made some absurd increases over the past 5 years. The benchmark in Niagara was $395,500 in November, up 79.03% over the past 5 years – the most in the country. The Hamilton benchmark reached $581,900, up 69.97% over the past 5 years. Vancouver reached $1,042,100, up 69.47% over the past 5 years. Across Canada, the typical gain is 43.06% over the past 5 years. For context, the UBS list of the largest real estate bubbles in the world has an average gain of 35% over the past 5 years.

Canadian Real Estate Price Change – 5 Year

The 5 year percent change in the price of a typical home, in Canada’s largest markets.

-20020406080100Fraser ValleyNiagaraHamiltonVancouverVancouver IslandVictoriaTorontoBarrieGuelphOakvilleAggregateOttawaMontrealMonctonCalgaryEdmontonSaskatoonReginaPercent
City5 Years
Fraser Valley 86.36
Niagara 79.03
Hamilton 69.97
Vancouver 69.47
Vancouver Island 67.83
Victoria 59.9
Toronto 58.5
Barrie 54.51
Guelph 52.68
Oakville 49.65
Aggregate 43.06
Ottawa 19.05
Montreal 17.28
Moncton 17.25
Calgary 0.26
Edmonton -0.7
Saskatoon -5.34
Regina -10
 

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Not all markets made gains, most notably Regina, Saskatoon, and Edmonton. Regina’s benchmark price fell to $272,100 in November, down 10% over the past 5 years – the largest loss in the country. Saskatoon saw prices fall to $293,500, down 5.34% over the past 5 years. Edmonton’s benchmark came in at $321,800, down 0.7% over the past 5 years.

Canadian real estate prices made lofty gains over the past 5 years, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see gains taper. Fewer sales and rising interest rates aren’t pointing to a reversal of this trend anytime soon.

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-real-estate-price-gains-continue-to-taper-annual-growth-falls-below-2/

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